June Market Overview
June was largely a continuation of what investors had experienced in May. U.S. stocks rose modestly, and foreign stocks got dinged by a stronger dollar. Core bond investments were off a bit as rates ticked up ever so slightly.
The concerns are very much the same as they have been all year: the Fed is tightening and yield curve is flattening; there are escalating (or de-escalating, depending on the day) trade tensions; and concerns about inflation are picking up. As much as these things can be, or already are, an issue, they are observable and well documented. For now, these issues seem manageable, so we are more concerned about something exogenous.
In July, we look forward to earnings season. Companies will report how they did and how they expect to do for the remainder of the year. All else equal, stocks tend to follow earnings and cash flows over time, so this will be important. Commentary out of the first quarter was more good than bad and not a lot has changed since then, so we suspect we will get more of the same.
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